Le Point Macro Hebdo: the stock market is collapsing, Bitcoin too (-10%)!

The fall continues – While Bitcoin has been showing resilience in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin fell over 10% yesterday. For a moment, it even went below $30,000. The stock market continues to fall and there is no real end in sight. The LUNA foundation had to sell BTC at a loss to be able to compensate for the fall of its decentralized stablecoin unable to hold its supposed value of $1. Bitcoin’s downfall has been intensified by recent UST issues. The market took the opportunity to liquidate bullish bettors, but is it over? Let’s see the state of the market!

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Bitcoin: sharp fall, blood is flowing!

Yesterday was a particularly painful day for the hodlers of Bitcoin. Bitcoin lost more than 10% and Luna lost 55% following the problem related to the UST. Here is the Bitcoin daily chart:

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

Bitcoin is back on the ultimate support at $30,000. Let’s not forget that this is the average price of bitcoins accumulated by companies like Tesla and Microstrategy. This is a level that must absolutely hold in closing. The course is now bearish to daily, until proven otherwise. For this, buyers will need to reverse the strong selling trend by building a reversal pattern (W).

The fall is brutal, but the essential is preserved, for the moment. Bitcoin price seems to be in a range between $30,000 and $60,000 and it could continue. We are now waiting for a trend reversal at the support level and for the price to cross above the bearish trendline (brown).

Assets risk off: gold tries to rebound, the dollar continues to rise?

Gold stagnates at support at $1,860

Gold, which is supposed to be a protection during complicated periods, cannot find a buyer for the moment. He undergoes a decrease of more than 10% since early March 2022. Gold is falling, but the chart remains long term bullish.

Gold is on support at $1860.  It could quickly find itself in the reload zone between $1820 and $1750.
Price of gold against the dollar (1D)

The price of gold remains bullish, but it has marked a local top in early March. Buyers are defending support at $1,860. The first stop yielded, there is a good chance of finding the gold in the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) between $1,820 and $1,750.

We have to wait to see a trend reversal short term to see gold perform again. Gold has a very high capitalization, it takes high volumes for the price to move, it will take time.

The dollar does not seem to weaken! This is not good for risky assets!

The dollar continues to climb. The dollar must absolutely weaken if we want to review risky assets. Since the dollar rises, risky assets fall :

The dollar still does not seem to weaken!  Alert for risky assets if the trend persists.
Dollar index chart (1D)

The dollar index (DXY) does not seem to be losing momentum at the moment. There is no sign of a top at this time. The momentum does not weaken, buyers are present. The RSI should close below the yellow line and below the trendline installed since the beginning of 2022. Technically, the probabilities remain, for the moment, turned towards a continued rise.

The equity market: big risk in the short term?

The stock market is struggling to recover. The current situation is critical and most stocks are falling.

S&P 500 Support Breaks: Back to $3,700?

Last week we were talking about bracket to keep at $4,150. He gave in. The FED meeting did not allow for a breather. The rise in rates does not please the market even if it remains very low compared to inflation.

The S&P 500 has broken the support at $4,150, it is most likely heading towards the next one at $3,700.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (1D)

The S&P 500 has broke the bracket which also represents the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) of the move initiated in October 2020. The next support is in the reload zone, at $3,700. The support mentioned last week at $4,150 is now resistance.

The price of the S&P 500 shows a daily downtrend as long as the troughs and peaks are descending. We will have to wait for the trend to change to see the index perform again. The momentum is bearish, but it is still possible to form a divergence if the RSI closes above 66. This would require the S&P 500 to rebound strongly. Unfortunately, this does not seem relevant.

Coinbase digs, soon to $30?

Coinbase is in downtrendit is approaching the downtrendline at around $30 :

Coinbase continues to fall against the dollar.
Coinbase price against the dollar (1D)

Coinbase is free fall since the support was broken at $215. The price could find a buyer close to $30 if the price continues to fall. The price of this action being very recent, there is no support at this level. It will be necessary identify a change in dynamics to increase the odds that a lower low can form.

Momentum could also form a divergence if the RSI manages to close above 60. Again, it seems unlikely let that happen. The markets should recover very quickly.

The NASDAQ can recover!

We know it, Bitcoin is highly correlated to the US marketbut especially on the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ is on support at $12,000.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (1D)

The NASDAQ is also in daily bearish momentum. The NASDAQ could bounce off the support at $12,000but it will take a reversal structure to confirm it.

Momentum could, like the S&P 500 and Coinbase, form a bullish divergence. For this, the RSI must close above 64. This is not the preferred scenario, but it is still possible as long as the RSI does not go below 25.

Finally, we see that the US market is bearish. Bitcoin, which has been holding up pretty well so far, is back on ultimate support and buyers should definitely hold on to it. Gold has room to drop further, but the momentum for this asset remains bullish. The dollar index still does not weaken. This is not good news for so-called risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

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