DECRYPTION – The minimum tax of 15% on multinationals represents only a few pages in this indigestible bill with still undetermined contours.
The approval by both Houses of Congress of the reform of the taxation of multinationals, before the legislative elections in November, is still possible, but increasingly doubtful. The fate of the compromise adopted at the OECD by 136 countries depends on complex budgetary procedures affected by an electoral campaign which is not looking good for the Democrats. Concretely, if the vote does not come before the end of July, it is likely that the United States will remain outside the new regime until 2025.
The Democrats, who are as numerous as the Republicans in the Senate, have been trying for months to pass a “budget reconciliation law” by a simple majority. This text is supposed to include the great promises of Joe Biden in terms of new social programs, as well as new devices to accelerate the energy transition and decarbonize the American economy. Faced with the defections of two Democratic senators, and faced with a…