Decline in Volatility for Bitcoin, a Sign of a Big Move on the Way? The weekly macro update

Lower Volatility for Cryptocurrencies – Justice takes its time, but the FTX case is on its way. In fact, Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested at his home in the Bahamas. Cryptocurrencies are usually very volatile, but this is not the case right now. As we know cryptos are going through a complex period and volatility is dropping drastically. Bitcoin is rising cautiously, it will take much more to regain bullish momentum. Could gold start to rise again at the end of the year? Are BTC and cryptocurrencies blocked as long as gold attracts capital? This is Le Point Macro Hebdo issue 45!

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Weekly Bitcoin Analysis

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is decrease in volatilityit fluctuates between $16,700 and $17,400 for two weeks now. This type of situation often leads to a powerful movement :

Bitcoin Price vs. Dollar (1W)

Overall, BTC is in downward trend, the valleys and peaks are decreasing. As long as this is the case, there is nothing to expect from this asset. that institutional bias has been lower for several months and every return between EMAs is being sold by traders. To become bullish on this asset in the medium term, we will have to wait for a clear break in the bearish trend line, a change in momentum and a bullish institutional bias. We don’t have any of that at the moment.

In the shorter term, the course is still installed under resistance at $19,000. The price needs to go back above this level and that he pitches his tent above, to be bullish on BTC. It looks like a little support is building around $16,000, it is necessary to maintain this level to avoid another drop. A further decline could bring the price to the next strong supports placed on $13,500 then to $11,800. Although Ethereum still hasn’t hit a new low since last June, Bitcoin still seems to crazy.

At the level of momentum it always remains crazy. RSI is still stuck below bearish trend line. This must be broken to regain purchasing power. Also break the level at 40 of RSI would make it possible to find one bullish momentum on momentum. The stochastic is in oversold zone since May 2022 and continues to stay afloat, which bodes well for the coming months.

Risk off: The dollar and gold stagnate

The dollar remains below the resistance of 105.5 points

Since the end of October, the dollar has changed dynamics. This is good news for risky assets because capital flows. The dollar should continue to fall for lovers of risky assets:

The dollar remains firm under resistance.
Dollar Index Chart (3D)

At the moment, the dollar remains in the scenario discussed last week. The dollar is stuck below resistance, and as long as it is, risky assets can benefit. However, it will be necessary to confirm this momentum by continuing to show one downward trend. A return to the level of 102.5 points support would be another step.

First stop is resistance to gold

Gold looks set to benefit from the recent drop in the dollar. Capital flows within the financial markets and gold appears to be benefiting from this. But gold stagnates two weeks ago:

Gold stagnates at first stop level.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

The price went up too 12% from the lowest marked at $1,615. Gold changed the momentum and even managed to maintain tidy in which it has been stuck since April 2020. However, the price blocks at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), which constitutes a resistance important. Traders who bought lower take profit at the level of one resistance zone, it makes perfect sense. The price may rise, in the coming weeks, at the level of institutional bias and came back close top of the range.

Against BTC, gold is still in uptrend. The configuration must be changed to find colors for the king of cryptocurrencies:

Gold is moving up against Bitcoin.
Chart of Gold vs. Bitcoin (3D)

The course has jumped back several times at EMA’s level. It is very possible that he will trust again institutional bias to jump back again. that bullish scenario for cryptocurrencies would be to fall below the EMAs and return to the level of weekly support. Momentum also shows one divergence which could be confirmed by falling under 47 of RSI. If so, this could be a top for the GOLD/BTCUSDT pair.

You will have to find one downward trend on this pair to regain the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.

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The US market: a break and it starts again?

In last week’s Point Macro Hebdo we talked about a likely one break on the American market. The market was at resist not insignificant, and that is what happened. Can buyers show up again to restart the machine?

The S&P 500 rejects support at $3,900

The S&P 500 bounces off the support level at $3,900.
The price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

that bracket for $3,900 must be maintained for buyers. From now on it will be necessary to close over
$4,100 to confirm the momentum initiated since the rebound at the level of bracket for $3,500. If this happens, will first stop could finally give way and the price could return to the level shorts reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) between $4,300 and $4,500.

On the other hand, if bracket for $3,900 dividends, the price should fall towards the next supports at
$3,700 and $3,500. For now, momentum points to one rejection on the resistance level. It will need to be exceeded to avoid the bearish scenario.

NASDAQ stalls at $12,000

NASDAQ remains just under $12,000 and below bearish trend line :

The NASDAQ is stuck at the $12,000 resistance level.
NASDAQ exchange rate against the dollar (3D)

The NASDAQ quote is clear dismiss on a level with double resistance. A return to the support level at $11,000 would allow buyers to regain their strength and perhaps finally be able to break bearish trend line. As long as it lasts, sellers can regain control of the price.

Momentum is too crazybecause RSI always develops below bearish trend line. A new rejection happened a few days ago. An excess of 58 of RSI would be a signal bullish to NASDAQ.

Overall, Bitcoin remains fragile below its $19,000 resistance. Admittedly, the dollar attracts less capital, but the latter does not go to BTC for all that. Currently the GOLD/BTC pair is bullish and as long as it is, capital should go into gold instead. When the pair changes momentum, cryptocurrencies can benefit from it. The US market, on the other hand, is taking a break after a nice recovery against the trend. At the moment, the US indices remain above their support, but we need to react quickly to avoid another decline.

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