Regularly find technical analyzes of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and other emblematic cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH). But also videos to introduce you to certain technical indicators, tips or more fundamental approaches. All this with the objective of remaining clear and accessible to allow you to learn the basics of trading. And to benefit from in-depth analyzes carried out by experienced traders.
Full video of this Coin Trading analysis at the end of the article.
This article will be an opportunity to take stock of the situation of Bitcoin over the past month. But also to try to see what we can expect for the coming months. This with the help of various indicators used regularly in the context of these technical analyses. And without the need to go looking for altcoins, because BTC will already reveal a lot of essential information about the current state of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin – Still in a downtrend
Bitcoin can be considered as the compass of the cryptocurrency market. And if it is bearish, the odds of the rest of the market going down with it are still very strong. The same in the case of a return to the upside, in particular over fairly long time units such as the weekly. And in the current situation, it will have escaped no one that the decline is generalized on the cryptocurrency market.
To start getting interested in altcoins again, it will take wait for a confirmed reversal structure to be in place. But also a buy signal, for the moment very far from topical in the current market situation.
Bitcoin – Towards a breakout of the 200 MM?
In weekly time unit, it is possible to see that the moving average 200 (MM200) once again plays its role of historic support. Even if it has already been pierced several times in the past, before seeing the price of Bitcoin rebound in stride. And in the current situation, the price of BTC is currently just below this level, while the week is still far from closed. And it may well be broken from below before the end of this periodjust started.
A scenario that could correspond to the previous ones of the same type, with a Bitcoin price that could initially move towards around $18,000. And, at the end of the week, start rising again with a succession of bullish candles in daily time units. This would ultimately lead to a new wick below the 200 moving average in weekly time units. And a very encouraging configuration for the rest of the events, as the latter would once again be confirmed as historical support. By opening the doors to a possible return to a bull market in a few months.
But first it will be necessary the market stabilizes for at least several months before recovering. As has already happened on other occasions in this kind of market situation. With a possible rebound of Bitcoin towards around $25,000. And a range period whose duration remains to be determined… and to endure! Especially considering that the downside margin that still existed at the time of the last technical analysis no longer exists today.
Bitcoin – Historically (very) low levels
The miners’ profitability curve has been in the green zone for several weeks. And its current level is approaching those seen on rare occasions in Bitcoin’s history, in 2015 and 2018. An identical situation if we turn to its Regression curve, whose channel has just been broken from below. An equally historic fact that has only happened a few times in the past. With a price of BTC ($21,200) currently very far from its bottom located at around $33,000.
Knowing that the “fair value” of Bitcoin displayed by this indicator is currently just below $80,000. That is to say almost three times its current price. With a “Top” located around $190,000 at present. A theoretical objective which remains possible in the case of a future summit, for the moment very (very) distant. And as the only real certainty: extremely low and historic levels on the price of Bitcoin which only happen on very rare occasions. And as a result, very interesting buying opportunities.
Bitcoin – Keeping a long-term view
The Bitcoin curve historically evolves in relation to the Stock to Flow line (yellow line). This between the different halvings that punctuate its monetary creation, identified by the red lines. With a price that normally ends up breaking this indicator from above, before returning to this level at the next expiry. And there are still two years before that happens. In other words, an eternity in the cryptocurrency market.
Reason why, although it currently seems unlikely, nothing is yet decided in the field. With a Bitcoin that can very well stagnate for several months before coming to position itself at the $120,000 level. Or, as in previous editions, break the yellow line from above and get $200,000 before returning to this last level for 2024. All this with a long-term perspective. And forgetting the current bearish depression already occurred in 2018, without this changing anything to the bullish momentum of BTC.
Bitcoin – Wait? But not too much !
Whatever, the current price of Bitcoin is very close to its Realized Price (orange curve). And whenever it is, or slightly below, it means it is worth investing. Especially considering thatit seems very unlikely that BTC will go down to $10,000. And even if everything is possible, waiting for these levels may prove to be the only opportunity to miss those that we currently encounter. And see the train leave without having placed its marbles.
Because, whatever the case, the current situation presents very good buying levels to invest in Bitcoin, with a long-term perspective. That is to say with objectives over several years. But when it comes to active trading, that’s not the case yet. Because the trend remains for the moment very clearly marked downwards. And there is nothing to confirm that the latter cannot continue over the next few weeks.
Bitcoin – A morning star in monthly unit?
To end this analysis, a quick tour in monthly time units. With currently very tight Bollinger bands around the Bitcoin curve. And again, as has already happened on other occasions, in 2015 and 2018. But in this case there is something like a problem. Because the monthly candle for this month of June is currently below the lower limit of this indicator. And no such close has ever happened before, in the short history of this cryptocurrency.
Nevertheless, the current candle is ongoing and still far from closed. This suggests the possible repetition of previous scenarios. That is to say, finally with a bearish wick, following the reintegration of Bitcoin prices above the lower limit of these Bollinger bands. This implies a closing of BTC around $28,000 for the end of the month. And in the case of a bullish candle on the following month (July) this could give rise to the drawing of a morning star, and the validation of a very strong buy signal. But in the case of a close below the lower limit of the Bollinger bands, this scenario can be forgotten immediately… and in two weeks.
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