Bitcoin Price on June 24 – The $23,000 Stake

First try – Will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) close this week with a recapture of a level essential for a sustainable bullish recovery?

This Bitcoin price analysis is brought to you in collaboration with the Coin Trading and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.

The price of Bitcoin at $21,000: towards a fakeout at $23,000?

Bitcoin price drops as low as $20,704 on Bitfinex today, June 24, 2022. It then regains $21,000 and holds above it.

Cryptocurrency trades at $21,176 at the time of writing this article. The markets are currently entitled to a doji on a daily time frame.

By closing the day above $21,000, the cryptocurrency could give the impression of renewed strength.

Is the price of Bitcoin currently preparing to regain its former support at the level of the 200 week simple moving average ?

Today’s Markets Update from Decentrader looks at the “great historical significance” of this average. This level has served as major support during bear markets.

Decentrader evokes the existence of a high concentration of demand at $23,000just above this average.

But given this high volume of demand and the uncertainty when Bitcoin will approach that $23,000, Decentrader then points out the possibility of a fakeout around this average.

In other words, Bitcoin could suffer rejection during the first attempt to cross this level.

An exceptional bear market during this cycle?

Other analysts also attempt to determine the cycle floor price, taking another approach.

Glassnode has analyzed historical data for this purpose to compare the magnitude and duration of current bear markets compared to those of previous bear markets.

The platform considers that the 2021-22 bear cycle can be seen from two angles:

  • the first cycle started at the all-time high (ATH) of April 14, 2021. The May 2021 liquidation would be according to Glassnode, the main initiator of bearish sentiment on the stairs.
  • the second started at the ATH on November 8, 2021.

Regarding bear market which started on April 14, 2021, its duration till today is 435 days. 227 days however, have passed since November 8, 2021.

The duration of this 2021-22 bearish cycle is therefore currently between 227 and 435 days. Is this duration then still considerably lower or longer than previous bear markets?

Duration and magnitude of bear markets – Source: Glassnode

The bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2019 lasted 410, 362, and 260 days respectively. The duration of current bear markets would therefore be within the normwith reference to historical data.

Given this relative similarity in the duration of the cycles, a comparison of the magnitude of the declines before the price floors were reached on each bear market may therefore also be relevant.

In 2015, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin bottomed after a 75% to 80%, 79% to 84%, and 74.7% retracement, respectively, from the previous ATH. During this cycle, Bitcoin price retraced 73.3% from its 2021 ATH.

This figure is slightly lower than the 74.7% of 2019. In this case, the markets should expect another drop below local low below $18,000reached on June 18, 2022.

Bitcoin would therefore be on the verge of attacking $23,000, with a possible failure on the first try. This scenario is also rather consistent with forecasts based on current purchase volumes on the BTC markets.

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