A historic carnage that will leave deep scars! – This is a week that is likely to make an impression on the cryptocurrency market. But if we limit ourselves only to the graphic level, it is clear that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen. Indeed, the exit from the range in which it has been evolving since the end of January was unfortunately from the bottom.
Under these conditions, the crypto king’s already uncertain price trend is now veering into bear run mode since its last ATH in November 2021. Although this worst-case scenario demands confirmation next week, many investors have left some feathers. And since that wasn’t enough to drive the point home, the unfavorable signals on the latest BTC technical analyzes are unleashed at full speed. With the idea that the bear run could extend to an altogether beneficial purge.
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Bitcoin – Seven in a row?
Without really getting wet, Bitcoin seems on track to consolidate its series of seven consecutive weeks of decline. Especially since it would be a historic first since its existence. But the essential is elsewhere, because the support of $35,000 which was previously the low point of the year, has been broken. In such a way that the price trend of BTC becomes bearish with the validation of two increasingly deep highs and lows. Hence the significant weight of the downline since its last ATH in November 2021.
As for the evolution of the various curves of the Ichimoku according to the latest movements in weekly units, nothing suggests any return to optimism. Firstly, Bitcoin prices and the Chikou Span simultaneously move away from the bottom of the Kumo (cloud), the Senkou Span B (SSB). And on the other hand, the Kijun which had long stagnated around the resistance of $52,000, is slipping inside the cloud. And this, since the acceleration of the decline of the king of cryptos towards $30,000.
At the same time, the fact that the king of cryptos sees his supports break in turn, further reinforces the crucial role of the bearish chart pattern, the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) in the current bear run. These are many negative technical signals that are not likely to reassure cryptocurrency investors.
Bitcoin – The $30,000 to the rescue?
If Bitcoin managed to get back to the support level of $30,000, the fact remains that a new attack from the sellers is in the cards over the next few days. But even so, the bearish pressure would seem to be out of breath in daily units. This would leave time for a technical rebound, despite prices and a Chikou Span below the cloud.
On this Friday, May 13, we observe a morning star. As a reminder, this is an upward reversal pattern formed by three candles. The first is a bearish candle followed by a small bullish or bearish candle that closes below the first candle. The third is a bullish candle.
In this case, the second candle looks like a doji while the third lacks conviction due to its reluctance to break above the $30,000 support, which was last year’s lows. On the other hand, the price gap between BTC and Tenkan seems far apart. A possible filling via new bullish candles would validate the morning star with a short-term target towards $35,000a future former support turned major resistance.
In summary, Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 is on whether you like it or not on a chart level. Not only the rebound of its dominance attests that we can put an end to the ALT Season until further notice. And insofar as the king of cryptos remains correlated to the evolution of the equity indices (and therefore to risk appetite), the support of $30,000 would be put under pressure by the sellers. Below this critical threshold, there wouldn’t be much left to find a valid starting point.
To make matters worse, the misadventures of the UST stablecoin, which sowed an insane wind of panic on the entire crypto market, left scars on both retail and institutional investors. Consequently, and although this is my own, I fear that a crisis of confidence in this young asset class could set in for some time. In which case the hypothesis of seeing the price of Bitcoin pointing towards the symbolic bar of $20,000 would no longer be a fantasy. But in the end, wouldn’t it be worth a real reset to start again on a real bull run of superior quality?
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