Regularly find technical analyzes of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and other emblematic cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH). But also videos to introduce you to certain technical indicators, tips or more fundamental approaches. All this with the objective of remaining clear and accessible to allow you to learn the basics of trading. And to benefit from in-depth analyzes carried out by experienced traders.
Full video of this Coin Trading analysis at the end of the article.
This analysis will be an opportunity to take stock of the situation of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. Last time out, a very promising recovery signal was forming. But what about today? And what can we expect for the next few weeks? These are the questions that this technical analysis will answer.
Bitcoin – In times of stabilization
In monthly time units, it is possible to see that the Bollinger bands are quite contracted on the Bitcoin chart. Especially if we consider the previous historical bull market phases. Which corresponds to a stabilization period over this unit of time. With a price that has once again returned to seek the lower limit of the Bollinger bands, as was also the case in 2015 and early 2019.
The Bitcoin price curve is currently below the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that at least they should make a significant rebound in the medium term in monthly time units. This is to return to find the level of the moving average of these Bollinger limits, located around $40,000. The question being how long will this technical rebound last?
Ethereum – Stronger than Bitcoin
An almost identical situation for Ethereum, despite a lack of history compared to Bitcoin. With, at each major correction, a rebound that comes from the lower limit of the Bollinger bands (early 2019 and March 2020). The latter currently completely flattened, as the ETH price curve pierced the lower boundary last month. And, at this very moment, a rebound in progress somewhat on the model of what already happened in November 2018.
And in the same situation, identical objectives. With, initially and in the medium term, the level of the moving average of the Bollinger bands located at approximately $2800. Then the last recorded ETH ATH in the $5000 area. And why not a new historic high for Ethereum, but a priori not before next year. But all this only if no invalidation comes to stop this ongoing rebound.
Because a monthly close below $1000 for Ethereum would totally change the situation. With a possible target of $400 for ETH and $15,000 or worse for BTC. But that has nothing to do with the current trend which seems to be on the rise. In particular for Ethereum, stronger than Bitcoin for 3 years already, and the arrival of its mutation to Proof of Stake scheduled for mid-September which is unleashing investors.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum – ETH outperforms BTC
A situation very clearly demonstrated if we observe the graph of ether against BTC (ETH/BTC). With a strong uptrend initiated since mid-2019. And this even if certain periods of correction indicate that Bitcoin outperforms Ethereum for short periods.
And for a little over a year, a period of consolidation that has led to a rapprochement of the Bollinger bands. With the prospect of a breakout from the top of the last ATH. And, in this case, a return to the upside for ETH which would continue to greatly outperform BTC.
Bitcoin – An uptrend to be confirmed
In the current state of things, the return to the rise initiated a few weeks ago does not in any way swallow up the sharp fall recorded in June. However, this ongoing technical rebound is much more visible in weekly time units. Especially if we observe the Regression indicator applied to the Bitcoin curve. With a price very largely undervalued at the present time, in view of its history. Because the break at the bottom of this envelope of Regression is undeniable.
Indeed, BTC prices even came to briefly close below the 200 moving average (200ma) level. Which is extremely rare, even unheard of for Bitcoin over such a long period. Because it has already been sailing below this historic threshold for several weeks. But, for a few days, a first attempt seems to materialize in order to try to go back above this fateful level. And, in the case of a clear upward breakout, the first real objective would be a reintegration of the Regression envelope above $37,000. This corresponds to the moving average of the Bollinger bands in a monthly time unit discussed earlier in this analysis.
Bitcoin – A BTC at $100,000 in 2024?
The trend for Bitcoin is currently bullish in the short term, but it still remains bearish in the long term. However, if the history of the Stock to Flow indicator is to be believed, its price should be around $100,000 (yellow line) at the time of the next halving, scheduled for 2024. That is a multiplication by 5 compared to its current level, which remains an entirely conceivable and reasonable objective, given the high volatility of BTC.
Knowing that each time, the BTC passes above this yellow line before coming back into it during the halving period. But, as things stand, it’s going to take a lot more buyers to be able to push it towards that goal.. And transform this current rebound into something other than a simple jump in a bear market that has been going on for a year now. Because in the case of a new passage below $20,000 things will be very different.
Bitcoin – Low point already validated?
Remarkably since the last technical analysis, the white curve of the Pi indicator has just passed below the green curve. A configuration that is supposed to identify a low point in the price of Bitcoin. And a situation that was envisaged a few weeks ago, without having been validated. It is now done!
This makes it possible to validate a potential bottom for the BTC, which has been carried out for a few weeks at around $18,000. And a possible long-awaited trend reversal in the cryptocurrency market. A scenario that could take the form of a measured rebound, followed by a longer period of consolidation. And eventually, a return to an uptrend. Which does not mean that you have to rush to buy everything and invest all your funds. Because it is always necessary to have a method of entry and exit to take a position.
Bitcoin – Buyers take over
In daily time units, the buy signal is much more obvious and visible. The latter issued on confirmation on July 18, following the break of the resistance of around $21,000. All followed by a pull back and a confirmation on the rise to position itself under the resistance of around $24,000. The latter has already been tested several times over the past few weeks. And, in the event of a close above this level, a new buy signal to watch very closely.
In daily time units, buyers seem determined to take control. This is to validate a trend reversal which has been gradually confirmed for a few weeks. With increasingly high lows. And the expectation of a breakout of the resistance of $24,000 for BTC which will allow it to move to the next level ($1700 for Ethereum).
TOTAL2 – Altseason in the starting blocks
In the current state of affairs, many altcoins outperform Bitcoin. As in the case of the BNB cryptocurrency which delivered a very strong buy signal in weekly units last week. A confirmed scenario if we turn to the TOTAL2 graph, with a trend reversal visible both in weekly and daily time units. This following various successive buy signals and a resistance already broken from above.
The TOTAL2/BTC curve is almost at the level of its last ATH. And once again in the face of this huge resistance formed in January 2018 and already tested many times. With, in the event of a confirmed breakout, the start of a long-awaited altseason that would allow the altcoin market to outperform Bitcoin. Hence this fateful question not to be overlooked over the next few weeks: what will be the effective magnitude of the current rebound?
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