Last week we mentioned that sellers might be in doubt. Indeed, it is clear that Bitcoin has hovered around $20,000 since mid-September. And it is not for nothing that it is at the level of the ATH of 2017. Now many investors will cross their fingers for a favorable outcome, since the bear market since the last ATH in November 2021 is slow to regain its rights.
The latest technical analysis gives a sense that the buyers are trying to resist. So far, recent BTC price bounce attempts have been aborted. And in the wake of the latest US employment figures, will Bitcoin still navigate a tidy narrow or get out?
Bitcoin – New chorus around $20,000
This week’s bullish candles allow Bitcoin to approach the descending line of its bear market. Especially since the technical indicators are heading towards their respective water lines. Nevertheless, these favorable technical signals remain timid, leaving sellers on the lookout for the smallest grain of sand.
Because precisely the prices develop in one tidy tight since mid-September around the $20,000 support. This is unfortunately explained by the absence of positive catalysts, which in themselves would help to remove a large part of the current uncertainty in the financial markets. Even now we have nothing to put in our mouths.
And even if BTC prices would rise again by breaking through the descending line, one would be aware of the harsh reality of Weinstein’s phase 4. With a 30-week moving average (weekly 30MM) which remains firmly on a bearish trajectory. In the near future, it may act as resistance to a favorable trend reversal.
Either way, there would still be We have worked out all the losses from last spring’s wave of corrections.
Bitcoin – Crossing the Downward Line in Sight?
In daily units, we feel that Bitcoin is taking a nap around the $20,000 support. So much so that buyers neutralize sellers or vice versa. On the side of MACD and RSI, they are painfully trying to stay above the zero line and the neutral zone at 50 respectively.
Besides, the need for both technical indicators to hold this course could contribute to a return to $20,000. And cause and effect, BTC prices would have chances to cross the descending line. Assuming they break above the $22,000 resistance.
Afterwards, the buyers would attack the resistance at $26,000, not far from the 200-day moving average (MM200 daily). But the latter could play spoilsports in the perspective of a rebound of greater magnitude. And assume so Bitcoin prices will retrace above this average which is on a downward slope, caution would be in order with the possibility of a false buy signal.
Finally, assuming the opposite scenario, a dry break of $20,000 as was the case at $35,000, would cause its bear market to resume and new lows for the year to materialize. Thereby, the sellers would eventually target the $12,000 support with the possibility of first pushing prices towards the $16,000 support.
BTC – A Bear Market Still Marking Time. But Bitcoin remains under pressure!
As long as the current uncertainty in the financial markets does not subside, Bitcoin will still be threatened with new lows for the year. But the absence of negative catalysts, both endogenous and exogenous, could leave prices in this tidy very narrow since mid-September. As such, its bear market since its last ATH in November 2021 would stall longer than expected.
From there, it would already be necessary to correct a good part of the previous correction wave upwards in order to find a basis for easing. Unfortunately, BTC prices did not outline encouraging technical signals in the medium term. And as we mentioned in the last technical analyses, crossing the descending line may not be enough to realize the beginning of a trend reversal. Especially since prices will still be below MM30 weekly and MM200 daily.
Not only would the US dollar’s strength against major currencies not waver until proven otherwise. But to make matters worse, OPEC’s recent cut in oil production quotas would not make the Fed’s business any easier. In this sense, a return of the oil price to around $100 would force it to raise policy rates further. With an inflation level that is already high.
Therefore, continued monetary policy tightening by the US central bank, as it currently stands, will still be a headwind for risky asset classes. And until there is a bend about it, Bitcoin would see its upside potential limited. With the fear that the recoveries would be sold in a sluggish market environment.
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