Regularly find technical analyzes of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and other emblematic cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH). But also videos to introduce you to certain technical indicators, tips or more fundamental approaches. All this with the objective of remaining clear and accessible to allow you to learn the basics of trading. And to benefit from in-depth analyzes carried out by experienced traders.
Full video of this Coin Trading analysis at the end of the article.
This analysis will be an opportunity to take stock of the current situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum. With a number of quite promising signals, which go in the direction of an uptrend resumption. And indicators turned positive following BTC’s recent move above $22,000. A very promising sign of recovery…
In monthly time unit, Bitcoin’s underlying trend remains very clearly bullish. With a price currently located around $22,000. That is to say, still above the big monthly resistance, which has become support, located around around $20,000. With a strongly negative second quarter of 2022 for BTC. And three consecutive bearish months that could finally give way to a return to the upside for July.
Bitcoin – Possible return to an uptrend
In weekly time units, a little more interesting things are happening. And the first indicator addressed in this analysis will be the Mayer Multiple, already presented many times. The latter divided into three distinct areas. With an overheated trend above the red line, which lets you know that it is better to sell your BTC. And the fact of determine very good levels of purchasesthe closer the curve approaches the green zone.
And in this case, this line has currently passed under the green line. With a tendency to want to go back above for a few days. What has only happened very rarely in the history of Bitcoin. With each time the discovery of a low point in the price of BTC. And a trend that will once again make trading interesting and attractive. Because this was clearly no longer the case for a few months and the start of its strong downward trend.
Bitcoin – The bottom finally reached?
The second technical tool presented in this analysis is the PI indicator. It allows you to define the tops on the Bitcoin price, but also – and in this case – the bottoms. That is to say the famous low point that everyone is impatiently awaiting, in order to witness a trend reversal. And this indicator is very easy to use, because it highlights a potential bottom as soon as the white curve goes below the green curve. Which already happened in January 2015 and December 2018.
A scenario that seems about to happen again. With a white curve very clearly approaching the green curve. And even if the crossing has not yet taken place, it could very well occur at the weekly close. With the creation of a green zone and very good buy levels for BTC. But also the establishment of a range in weekly time units, located between approximately $20,000 and $30,000. Knowing that the low point could very well have already been touched on the level of $17,000!
Bitcoin – A Less Volatile Future
This is the very first time that the Bitcoin closes below its 200 moving average (200ma), but especially since there are several weeks left in this zone. While this line has served as a historical support for BTC prices for many years. With a few furtive crossings, but never of this magnitude. And as a probable reason, a progressive loss of amplitude and more and more limited increases. This is why it could stay near this fateful level more often – and longer – in the future.
However, this 200 moving average is still a very good trend indicator. This is to determine good buying areas. And note at the same time that the momentum of Bitcoin is still strongly bullish in the long term. With the best entry points for investors (buy & hold, DCA, …) colored in vert, as is currently the case. But however not precise enough for active trading.
Bitcoin – A very interesting buy signal
In daily time unit, Bitcoin has just delivered a very interesting buy signal. This follows a consolidation period that began about a month ago, after the breakout from the bottom of the previous range period last May. With, for the past few weeks, increasingly tight Bollinger bands. And a real textbook case, with three successive tests of the support of around $18,800, but also of the resistance of $21,500. And a recent breakout with the confirmation of a signal.
But this buy signal actually appeared a few days ago. This follows a bullish downtrend drawn on July 13, after a third rebound on the $18,800 support. And very exactly located on the lower limit of the Bollinger bands. With a bullish confirmation candle the next day. And, as a result, a buy signal validated on the level of $20,500. Before seeing the breakout confirmed when passing around $21,600.
A signal, however, against the trend, as it is still in a bearish momentum. Reason why it represents a greater risk. With the probability of a simple bounce up to the $26,000 level or so. Because it corresponds to the amplitude of the range which has just been broken from above. And the key to a longer consolidation, eventually with a possible new upside breakout which this time would validate an effective trend reversal.
Ethereum – Same scenario as for Bitcoin?
In monthly time units, Ethereum is currently at the level of the lower limits of the Bollinger bands. A point on which he has historically used to come and bounce. With an ongoing scenario that could very well reproduce that of 2018/2019. That is to say an upward trend that gives way to a period of decline. A rebound on the lower limit of the Bollinger bands (probably in progress). Then a period of consolidation, with a tightening of these bands. And to finish a return to a strong uptrend.
With, in daily time unit, also a buy signal obtained on the same day as that of Bitcoin. This follows an almost identical configuration, within a very clearly drawn range. That is to say with the same bullish swallowing, which occurred on July 13th. But a much faster rise which made it possible, at the same time, to break the resistance of $1250. And, as in the case of Bitcoin, a scenario that suggests a rebound much more than a real return to an uptrend confirmed.
Altcoins – Towards a possible altseason?
With a cryptocurrency market – excluding Bitcoin – still under significant resistance. A level tested many times since May 2021, but for the moment still not crossed. And, in the event of a break not the top, the possible triggering of the famous altseason that everyone is waiting for. With cryptocurrencies significantly outperforming Bitcoin, as was the case in 2017.
But for the moment, this resistance still leaves significant room for maneuver on the upside. This could allow altcoins to do better than Bitcoin over the next few months. With the possible objective of a return below this fateful level. And after a period of consolidation, an upward crossing for the moment still very theoretical. But a scenario that remains quite possible to consider.
Ethereum – Much more interesting than Bitcoin
Knowing that, since September 2019, Ethereum has always greatly outperformed Bitcoin. With a clearly bullish trend on the ETH/BTC ratio. Which makes it a much more attractive investment right now. Because everything suggests that this trend should be confirmed over the next few months or years. Especially if we consider the news about Ethereum, in the process of finalize its transition to Proof of Stake (PoS).
With, at present, a cryptocurrency market identified by the TOTAL3 indicator still in a downward channel since 2018. Which indicates that for the moment, there is no reason to think that altcoins will do better than Ethereum. But this is only an average and many altcoins still clearly outperformed ETH during this period. But the latter is still a preferred investment from an investment perspective.
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